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Assessment of impacts and adaptation measures of climate change for water quality in agricultural area
K. Rankinen, K. Sippel, K. Granlund, P.Ekholm, P. Valkama, L. Pietola, N. Veijalainen, J.Helenius & M. Forsius

In southern Finland the climate change models predict 10-24% increase in annual precipitation and 2.8-4.9 ºC increase in mean temperature for 2070-2100. In this area climate change will also mean warmer and wetter winters which are likely to increase nutrient loading to surface waters. In the VACCIA (Vulnerability Assessment of ecosystem services for Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation) project one aim is to demonstrate how climate change may affect agricultural production and environment, including impacts on nutrient loading to the waterways. The case demonstration area Lepsämänjoki agroecosystem is a medium-sized agricultural watershed with a drainage area of 213 km². The area belongs to the southern boreal zone, and is ecologically as well as socio-culturally representative of an agroecological zone reaching across Fenno-Scandia. Nitrogen and sediment loads from the catchment are simulated by the INCA-family models INCA-N (Wade et al., 2002) and INCA-SED (Jarritt and Lawrence, 2006). The effect of climate change in discharges is modeled with the hydrological model Watershed Simulation and Forecasting System (WSFS), which is used to produce the input data for the nutrient model. As possible mitigation options we studied the effect of new methods (gypsum), cultivation methods (no-till) and effective nutrient use (nitrogen balance). Results of the use of gypsum are derived from the TraP (Novel gypsum-based products for farm scale phosphorus trapping) project.

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