A probabilistic assessment of climate change effects on a boreal catchment in southern Finland


Maria Holmberg et al.

Finnish Environment Institute


While the uncertainty of future climate conditions and corresponding catchment responses is acknowledged, explicit treatment of this uncertainty is rare: most published model studies often include only a handful of scenarios to explore future uncertainties. As increasing numbers of climate model simulations are being conducted, impact researchers have improving opportunities to explore a wider range of climate uncertainty. We used a probabilistic projection of regional climate change (Harris et al. 2010) to study the probabilistic response of a chain of three impact models (HBV, INCA-C, MyLake) applied at Valkea-Kotinen. Our results indicate that projected climate warming is likely to result in drier soils, shorter snow and ice periods, as well as earlier onset and longer duration of lake stratification (Holmberg et al. 2014, forthcoming). The objective of this presentation at the modelling seminar is to discuss the method of scenario neutral impact response analysis as compared traditional scenario based analysis, in the light of our results for Valkea-Kotinen.




Holmberg M, Futter MN, Kotamäki N, Fronzek S, Forsius M, Kiuru P, Pirttioja N, Rasmus K, Starr M (2014) Effects of changing climate on the hydrology of a boreal catchment and lake DOC - probabilistic assessment of a dynamic model chain. Boreal Environment Research 19A:66-82


Harris G.R., Collins M., Sexton D.M.H., Murphy J.M. & Booth B.B.B. 2010. Probabilistic projections for 21st century European climate. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 10: 2009–2020.


The probabilistic climate change projections were provided by the EU FP6 Integrated Project ENSEMBLES (Contract number 505539), whose support is gratefully acknowledged.